The Hunt, Measured · Updated 28 September 2026

Playthrough Win-Rate Report

Current rules · Version 1.0 · Full six-hunter party · 100 deterministic seeds per policy and difficulty

Back to The Hunt

How to read these results

These are outcomes from automated play policies, not a prediction of a human party’s chance to win. “Reached Dracula” is shown separately from victory so castle progress remains visible when the final fight is lost. Each policy replays seeds 1–100 on Easy, Normal, and Hard.

This rerun corrected a harness bug found during review: when a search triggered a random encounter, the site was not marked searched after combat, so bots could repeat the same site and encounter. The harness now marks it searched after the encounter unless an active guardian was present. No game difficulty rules were changed for this report.

The Three-pair team policy follows your formation: Van Helsing with Godalming and Quincey with Seward pursue coffin leads, while Mina scouts for information and Jonathan for supplies. It won 53% on Easy and 38% on Normal. Easy Optimal won 83%, Normal Optimal 65%, and Normal Aggressive 34%.

Download all run metrics (CSV) · Includes pressure, wounds, bites, searches, movement, shops, rests, and party size at finale stages.

Confirmed wins840 / 1,80046.7% across the bot matrix
Started the castle finale1,187 / 1,80065.9% reached the opening Gargoyle
Reached Dracula916 / 1,800Includes wins and final-fight losses

Results by difficulty and policy

Each row is 100 complete seeded runs. “Finale losses” lists the stage where the party was defeated.

DifficultyPolicyWonCastle finaleReached DraculaAct I wipedAct I timeoutFinale losses
Gargoyle / Brides / Dracula
Finale escape / timeout
EasyBaseline59 (59.0%)93 (93.0%)65 (65.0%)7021 / 2 / 60 / 5
EasyCautious93 (93.0%)100 (100.0%)96 (96.0%)004 / 0 / 30 / 0
EasyAggressive84 (84.0%)100 (100.0%)89 (89.0%)007 / 4 / 50 / 0
EasyThree-pair team53 (53.0%)81 (81.0%)55 (55.0%)19018 / 5 / 20 / 3
EasyAdaptive100 (100.0%)100 (100.0%)100 (100.0%)000 / 0 / 00 / 0
EasyOptimal heuristic83 (83.0%)90 (90.0%)87 (87.0%)1001 / 2 / 40 / 0
NormalBaseline72 (72.0%)96 (96.0%)76 (76.0%)4016 / 0 / 40 / 4
NormalCautious48 (48.0%)91 (91.0%)53 (53.0%)9031 / 2 / 50 / 5
NormalAggressive34 (34.0%)73 (73.0%)44 (44.0%)27021 / 8 / 100 / 0
NormalThree-pair team38 (38.0%)58 (58.0%)40 (40.0%)42014 / 0 / 20 / 4
NormalAdaptive67 (67.0%)88 (88.0%)74 (74.0%)1208 / 6 / 70 / 0
NormalOptimal heuristic65 (65.0%)78 (78.0%)69 (69.0%)2207 / 2 / 40 / 0
HardBaseline10 (10.0%)26 (26.0%)15 (15.0%)7408 / 2 / 50 / 1
HardCautious8 (8.0%)25 (25.0%)13 (13.0%)75010 / 1 / 50 / 1
HardAggressive6 (6.0%)13 (13.0%)7 (7.0%)8706 / 0 / 10 / 0
HardThree-pair team2 (2.0%)14 (14.0%)6 (6.0%)8607 / 1 / 30 / 1
HardAdaptive12 (12.0%)39 (39.0%)21 (21.0%)61014 / 4 / 90 / 0
HardOptimal heuristic6 (6.0%)22 (22.0%)6 (6.0%)78012 / 4 / 00 / 0

“Castle finale” counts runs that reached the opening Gargoyle encounter. Dracula’s arrival count is measured directly by the harness. “Optimal heuristic” is a policy name, not an optimal solver.

Run setup: Godot 4.6; current Version 1.0 rules; baseline, cautious, aggressive, three-pair team, adaptive, and optimal policies; Easy, Normal, and Hard; each policy replays seeds 1–100 with the official six-hunter party. Combat action-limit hits: zero in all 1,800 runs.

Outcome definitions

  • Won: Dracula was defeated and the finale completed.
  • Reached Dracula: the party entered Dracula’s final encounter, whether it won or lost there.
  • Act I wipe: the hunters were lost before opening the castle finale.
  • Finale loss: hunters fell to the Gargoyle, Brides, or Dracula; each stage is counted separately.
  • Escape / timeout: a finale enemy escaped or a simulation safety limit ended the run. These are not victories.